With the next presidential election coming up this year, some states are considering dropping Republican candidate and former president Donald Trump from the ballot. Colorado and Maine have officially decided to bar Trump from the ballot. According to the New York Times article “What to Know About the Efforts to Remove Trump from the 2024 Ballot,” there are active lawsuits in 17 states, one of them being Oregon – a state historically known for voting Democrat.
The argument for removing Trump from the ballot is based on the 14th Amendment, passed over 150 years ago after the Civil War. In Tennessean Congressman Steve Cohen’s words on cohen.house.gov, the Amendment states that “any person from public office who, having previously taken an oath as a federal or state holder, engaged in insurrection or rebellion” is disqualified from running for office. While the law was made to prevent Confederate leaders from reclaiming their office seats, it became relevant again in 2024.
On January 6th, 2021, Trump supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol building in a fit of violent rage in response to his loss to Joe Biden in the 2020 election. The Maine secretary of state, Shenna Bellows, concludes this was an insurrection; therefore, Trump should be forbidden from running for president. According to the CNN article “Maine’s Top Election Official Removes Trump from 2024 Primary Ballot,” Bellows says Trump “[Inflamed] his supporters and [directed] them to the Capitol to prevent… the peaceful transfer of power.” While opposers say that the 14th Amendment does not apply to the president’s position, Bellows argues that it does, and needs to be enforced.
The Republican Party sees this as an infringement on their rights and an unfair attack on their party. Mike Johnson, Republican Congressman, states that “Every citizen registered to vote should not be denied the right to support our former president and the individual who is the leader in every poll of the Republican primary,” according to The Hill article “GOP Lawmakers Slam Colorado Court’s Trump Decision.” There is also debate on whether the attack on the Capitol building counts as an insurrection; potentially invalidating the 14th Amendment argument depending on what the Supreme Court has to say on the matter. Trump’s spokespersons claim that the Supreme Court will rule in Trump’s favor and “let the American people decide the next president of the United States.”
The question is, will Oregon ban Trump? The current prediction: Probably not. The Oregonian article “Trump Opposes Legal Effort to Bar him from 2024 Oregon Ballots” states that Oregon’s secretary of state, LaVonne Griffin-Valade, claims that she does not have the authority to prevent Trump from being on the primary ballot. She says that she will “Follow our usual process and expect to put Donald Trump on the primary ballot unless a court directs [her] otherwise.” California has also decided not to ban Trump from the ballot, the state with the most electoral votes and one with similar voting behavior to Oregon.
This decision is not popular with everyone. The Constitutional Accountability Center is a law firm that has filed several briefs against Trump in many states. They requested to submit a brief to the Supreme Court against Trump, which was approved. Unless the Supreme Court decrees so, as of right now, Oregon is unlikely to remove Donald Trump from the ballot. However, it is only January, the January of an election year. This year will certainly have more twists and turns waiting to come, and it is impossible to truly predict what will happen by November.
